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Prediction for CME (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-11T10:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42621/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME first seen to the NE by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-11-11T10:23Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131. Wide opening field lines and a large EUV wave and instance of dimming is visible in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195, along with post eruptive arcades visible in GOES SUVI 131 and 195. The arrival of this CME was likely observed at L1 by ACE/DSCOVR around 2025-11-12T18:52Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 19nT at 2025-11-12T18:52Z to about 40nT at 2025-11-12T19:00Z. The magnetic field parameters were previously enhanced due to the interplanetary shock starting at 2025-11-11T22:11Z. An increase in solar wind speed from about 580 km/s to 820 km/s was observed starting at about 2025-11-12T19:45Z after a brief period of unreliably low solar wind speed data which had occurred during the initial shock arrival. An increase in temperature was seen starting at 2025-11-12T19:45Z from about 71,000 K to about 764,000 K. A significant increase in temperature was observed starting at 2025-11-12T21:55Z, which may have been erroneous or unreliable data. A corresponding sudden increase in density was observed at 2025-11-12T19:41Z from about 4 p/cc to a peak value of 24 p/cc at 2025-11-12T19:49Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T18:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T20:05Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-11-11T15:21:49Z
## Message ID: 20251111-AL-011
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2025-11-11T10:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~1856 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 22/24 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A.  The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-11-11T18:21Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-11-12T13:16Z, Solar Orbiter at 2025-11-12T11:51Z, and STEREO A at 2025-11-12T14:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2025-11-21T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-11-12T20:16Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-8 (strong to severe).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251111_115400_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2025-11-11T10:23:00-CME-001) is associated with X5.1 flare from Active Region 14274 (N27W27) with ID 2025-11-11T09:49:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-11-11T10:04Z (see notifications 20251111-AL-004 and 20251111-AL-006).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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Lead Time: 27.52 hour(s)
Difference: -1.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-11T15:21Z

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